The projected change in the number of days per year with high fire danger (FWI greater than 30) is presented for three CMIP5 scenarios: RCP2.6 with low greenhouse gas emissions, RCP4.5 with medium greenhouse gas emissions and RCP8.5 with high greenhouse gas emissions. Further information about this index can be found in the C3S documentation resources in the Climate Data Store. The data was collated on behalf of the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). Very high danger: FWI is between 38.0 and 50. High danger: FWI is between 21.3 and 38.0. Moderate danger: FWI is between 11.2 and 21.3. The FWI can be understood in terms of six danger classes based on the European Forest fire Information System (EFFIS) classification. The projected changes to fire danger under future climate conditions are calculated relative to the 1986-2005 period. The GEFF model was run for four different climate scenarios: the present climate (labelled 'historical'), and three Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios consistent with an optimistic emission scenario where emissions start declining beyond 2020 (RCP2.6), a scenario where emissions start declining beyond 2040 (RCP4.5) and a pessimistic scenario where emissions continue to rise throughout the century (RCP8.5). Projections from multiple global climate models downscaled to a regional climate model were used to generate the meteorological input for the GEFF model. The FWI is generated using the Global ECMWF Fire Forecasting model (GEFF). The projected change in the number of days with high fire danger is calculated relative to the 1986-2005 period. The calculation of the FWI is based on 24-hour accumulated precipitation and daily noon values of air temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed. The incidence of high fire danger is expressed as the number of days per year with a FWI greater than 30. The FWI uses information about fuel moisture and weather conditions to determine fire behaviour. The Canadian Fire Weather Index System (FWI) is used to assess fire danger in a harmonized way across Europe.
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